We awoke to snow cover on April 9; overnight precipitation left a couple of inches of fresh snow on the ground, blanketing lawns and other vegetation. Areas of pavement that receive the radiant heat of sunlight were mostly free of snow, but paved areas that remain in shade and otherwise protected from the warming rays of April collected two or more inches of fresh powder.
By the time April makes its way to the top of the calendar lots of folks around here are impatient for warmer weather. To them, snow in April feels like an event out of time. But we’re just two weeks into astronomical spring, the vernal equinox having occurred on March 20 this year, so it didn’t strike me as particularly strange to see snow on the ground. I was, however, curious about past patterns of snowfall, so I checked with the National Weather Service (NWS) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to obtain some “Late Season Snow Climatology” information.
It is worth noting that when meteorologists use terms like “normal” or “average,” they usually mean a 30-year average. Here in Rockford, for example, the current NWS “normal” is based on records compiled between 1981 and 2010.
According to the NWS, the “normal” last date of the season on which to expect more than an inch of snow is March 20. However, the “normal” last date for a trace of snow is April 11. So the snow we received this week can hardly be seen as highly unusual. Looking back at earlier records, the latest “last measurable snow” in Rockford was May 11 (1966), and that was more than an inch of accumulation.
I was naturally curious about the phenology of the first snows of the season, as well. It turns out that the “normal” first date on which we receive a trace of snow is November 2; to receive more than an inch we typically would have to wait until December 5. I was surprised by the earliest first date of a trace of snow (October 3, 1951) and equally surprised by the latest first date of an inch or more of snow (February 7, 1921).
On the one hand, we could have snow around here any time between early October (as on October 3, 1951) and late May (like May 24, 1925). Yes, that’s 8 out 12 months during which we might see snow. On the other hand, our first trace of snow might not arrive until the latter half of December (which it did on December 19, 1999) and the last trace snowfall might be over in early March (as it was on March 5, 2012).
Climatologists recognize that weather patterns often vary tremendously year-to-year or decade-to-decade. They have to look at long-term patterns to gain an appreciable understanding of climate.
And this is why we collect phenology data for local plants, recording the dates of events like breaking leaf bud in the spring and colored leaves in the fall: every year is different. And with every season we witness the cycle of events, turning, spinning, spiraling around and through our perception of the natural world.